Anatomy of the [Coming?] Housing Market Crash
Is the housing market slowing down yet? Should we expect a crash?
I had written earlier that I expected the bubble to deflate slowly, but not burst. Lee Adler, of the Wall Street Examiner thinks it will be worse.
I had written earlier that I expected the bubble to deflate slowly, but not burst. Lee Adler, of the Wall Street Examiner thinks it will be worse.
The inventory of existing unsold homes has been rising at an accelerating rate for 13 months.Keep in mind that Adler is writing about the U.S. market; things will likely be different in Canada, especially in Alberta. At any rate, The Wall Street Examiner is an interesting, sobering site. It has been on my blogroll since its inception.
... Sales volume is declining.
... Prices have begun to decline, down 6% since November overall... . This is consistent with the pattern of past real estate bubbles that I have experienced first hand, with four important differences. This one was bigger, lasted longer, was more widespread, and was the engine of growth for the entire US economy and world financial system.
... What's going on worries me greatly.
... The crash will begin to show up in prices over the next couple of months, but the full effect will not be felt for a year or more. January is the first time since the bubble began that house prices were lower than they were seven months ago.
The worst is yet to come.
Category: Economics, Housing Posted on
Wednesday, March 22, 2006 at 12:31am
<< main
