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Economics and the mid-life crisis have much in common: Both dwell on foregone opportunities

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Richard Posner deserves the next Nobel Prize in Economics
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Testable Hypothesis: Men Who Take Parental Leave Will Be Less Productive
Both Tyler Cowen and Matt Yglesias link to a paper that concludes women who have children are not promoted as rapidly and/or are less likely to receive tenure-track, tenured, or full-professor jobs in the sciences. The economics explanation is that time off work reduces their productivity, on average.

This is not a new argument. The Fraser Institute in Canada did a study on discrimination about two decades ago and found that women who had never married did as well or better, on average, ceteris paribus, as men [no link, yet, but I'll see if I can find one (see below); Update: also see this. ]. Both results follow from the argument that raising children takes time away from investment in one's human capital and thus leaves one less productive. To the extent that the three Ps of pay, power, and prestige are related to the fourth P, productivity, it follows that women who give birth and take time to engage in child-rearing activities will end up earning less and not being promoted as often or as high.

If this explanation is correct, then the growth in the number of males taking parental leave when a new child is born or otherwise acquired should show up in declines in their productivity. If so, testing this hypothesis should yield significantly lower wages and ranks, on average, cet. par., for these males. The important variable will not be whether the couple has children, but who takes how much time off for child-rearing activities.

Update: Here is the Fraser Study I mentioned:
Discrimination, Affirmative Action and Equal Opportunity: An Economic and Social Perspective
Edited by Walter E Block and Michael Walker
$14.95, Book: 0-88975-039-4; 1981

It is no longer available from Amazon.ca, but you can probably still order it from The Fraser Institute:
Web site: www.fraserinstitute.ca
Email: sales@fraserinstitute.ca
Category: Economics Posted on Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 9:25am
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Chris R (mail):
I've personally known and worked with 2 men who took long parental leaves. In both cases, when they got back, there was absolutely no doubt in anyone's minds that their work productivity had declined.

This was in the Software Development field. It took, in both cases, about one full year before they were back up to their pre-leave capabilities.

Tiny sample size of course, so it may not mean much in the broader scheme of things. I doubt if their pay was affected, both men worked in stable companies that were supportive of their actions.
11.17.2006 9:47am
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