EclectEcon

One would think that with approximate doubling of oil prices (in US$) over the past year, Iran would be gaining even more clout in the Middle East and on the world scene. Stratfor Analysis doesn't think so ($ required).

Stratfor points out that although Iran is a major exporter of oil, its production, exports, and reserves per capita are waayyyy lower than for the other major oil producers in the Middle East.

Also, Iran is not a rich country overall; it's per capita GDP is roughly only 40% of Mexico's!

In addition, Iran's absurd subsidies for domestically consumed gasoline and its inadequate investment in refining capacity, mean that Iran ends up importing about 40% of its gasoline. The result is that as Iran earns more from its oil exports, it pays more for its gasoline imports, and on net is not a lot better off — certainly nowhere near as much better off as other Arab oil producers; and whatever gains it experiences do not have a major per capita impact.

Stratfor opines that with a more secure investment atmosphere, western AND Chinese firms would be very active in Iran and their oil output would be much greater than it is. But given the low reserves, per capita, Iranian leaders might well be choosing to hold more oil in the ground and sell it later (i.e. speculating on even higher oil prices in the future).

The other interesting point made by Stratfor is that because Iran is not making as much on its oil production as are other Middle East countries, its influence (vis-a-vis the Sunnis) will continue to wane. And that might well be one reason that Syria and Israel are engaged in negotiations.

Note: Stratfor is an expensive service. However, I recommend that if you have the opportunity, sign up for their one-month free trial whenever it next becomes available. Once you have assessed it for a month, you might well decide it is worth the price.